How is the investment burden of the heat transition distributed across different household groups – and who ends up overburdened? These are the questions answered by a new study prepared by the Öko-Institut on behalf of the Stiftung Klimaneutralität ("Climate-neutral building stock: Who must and can invest how much?").

The central finding: total investment needs amount to €86 billion per year. The heat transition is thus a major but manageable task – especially since around half of these investments would be necessary anyway, and only a good third relates to replacing heating systems.

However, people on low incomes need more support: according to the Öko-Institut's calculations, anyone with a net monthly income below €2,000 would have to spend more than a fifth of their income on heating and building-related costs. That is simply not possible. We therefore advocate for supplementary instruments to effectively support these households.

A socially just heat transition – what matters now

1. Income-based tiering in subsidies for heating replacement and renovation is the right approach, but it isn't enough. Low-income owner-occupiers need funding that fully covers their own contribution – or at least solves the problem of upfront financing.
2. Shared heating infrastructure, especially district heating networks, must be coordinated through more binding municipal heat planning and receive stronger funding support.
3. In the long term, heat supply should be understood and organized more as part of public services of general interest. This offers the opportunity to pool investment risks and enable affordable solutions for all households.

The study also examines which measures could help keep district heating affordable, where new minimum efficiency standards are needed, and how policymakers can create additional incentives for the energy-efficient modernization of non-residential buildings.

Read the study:

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