A new study by the Öko-Institut, commissioned by the Climate Neutrality Foundation, shows that households with a net monthly income below €2,000 can hardly shoulder their share of the investment needs – around €286 billion by 2045 – on their own. Their financial burden would amount to more than 20 percent of income, far exceeding the 10 percent threshold considered affordable. Particularly affected are low-income tenants in multi-family buildings as well as owner-occupiers of single-family homes.

The study combines the "Climate-Neutral Germany" scenario developed by the Agora think tanks with the Öko-Institut's building stock model BSTar, along with data from the census and microcensus. This makes it possible, for the first time, to break down investment needs in detail by building type, tenure status, and income across 20 household groups. The study also focuses on non-residential buildings – particularly schools, daycare centers, and other public facilities – as well as the role district heating plays for low-income households.

The conclusions drawn by the Stiftung Klimaneutralität translate into concrete policy recommendations: stronger income-based tiering of subsidies, more binding municipal heat planning, a longer-term shift toward organizing heat supply as a public service, and greater economies of scale through collective procurement. Only this way, the study concludes, can the heat transition be made socially balanced and affordable for all households.

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