Study on security of supply on the path to climate neutrality

The scenarios Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 and Climate-Neutral Germany 2050 describe paths to climate neutrality in Germany in 2045 and 2050, respectively. In this context, the question arises as to how security of supply can be guaranteed in such a rapidly changing electricity system. The Climate Neutrality Foundation commissioned Prognos to investigate the question of supply security on the electricity market. The study presented here provides analyses of supply security in the Climate Neutrality Scenarios and provides an outlook on systemic measures to ensure supply security.

The result is clear: the Climate Neutrality Scenarios show a high level of security of supply on the electricity market until 2030 and beyond. In an ambitious energy transition scenario, security of supply on the electricity market is made possible in particular by market-driven flexibility of demand via new electricity consumers, the build-up of controllable power plant capacity, and the high level of European exchange capacity.

The study is only available in German.

The current market design as an energy-only market is, due to its elements of the balancing group and balancing energy system, the balancing energy and the capacity reserve, in principle suitable to stimulate the development of controllable power plant capacity in the long term. In particular, the strengthening of balancing group loyalty and the high costs in the event of insufficient investment in controllable capacity by market participants via the balancing energy system and the capacity reserve represent a high incentive to invest in controllable power plants within the framework of the electricity market 2.0.