A new analysis of municipal heat plans shows that, for many citizens, the instrument does not deliver the certainty it promises. Many municipalities designate large "assessment areas" in which it remains unclear whether households will ultimately be connected to a district heating network.

In Neumünster, these areas cover 39% of households; in Lübeck, 35%; and in Heidelberg, 17%. As a result, municipal heat planning is often failing in its role as the central planning instrument for the heat transition—and this could prove costly.

The more property owners opt for individual heating solutions because of this uncertainty, the more difficult it becomes to develop economically viable district heating networks. At the same time, public funding risks being allocated inefficiently. The German federal government should therefore address these shortcomings in the forthcoming comprehensive revision of the Heat Planning Act.

To provide greater planning certainty for households, energy suppliers, and the real estate sector, the revised legislation should, above all, introduce clear requirements to ensure that assessment areas are resolved promptly. Our new policy brief explains how this could work in practice, outlines our additional recommendations, and highlights why social considerations should play a greater role in planning district heating networks.

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